As mood swings between tariff worries and domestic data reports, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has remained within its previous range limits, essentially idling between 1.3650 and 1.3750 in quiet activity over the past few days.
Sticky core inflation could support the expectation for the BoC hold
"A 0.1% M/M increase for June is the consensus estimate for today's Canadian CPI. But at 0.2% M/M, Scotia is above the street. It is anticipated that headline inflation would increase from 1.7% in May to 1.9% Y/Y with a 0.1% M/M gain. It is predicted that both core trim and median inflation will stay at 3.0% year over year, which is near where both metrics seem to have steadied over the last few months.
"A range breakout might depend more on outside events than on domestic data, but firm core data will support views that a BoC policy is more likely in the upcoming months as policymakers keep an eye on developments." A tighter range on the intraday chart, delineated by minor trend resistance at 1.3710 and minor trend support at 1.3680 this morning, has been established by Spot's erratic consolidation during the previous week.
The intraday and daily oscillators' weak trend momentum can make it difficult to identify directional risks and could result in a breakout from the short-term range that stalls quite fast. To generate more directional momentum, a prolonged break above 1.3750 or below 1.3650 could be required.
Sticky core inflation could support the expectation for the BoC hold
"A 0.1% M/M increase for June is the consensus estimate for today's Canadian CPI. But at 0.2% M/M, Scotia is above the street. It is anticipated that headline inflation would increase from 1.7% in May to 1.9% Y/Y with a 0.1% M/M gain. It is predicted that both core trim and median inflation will stay at 3.0% year over year, which is near where both metrics seem to have steadied over the last few months.
"A range breakout might depend more on outside events than on domestic data, but firm core data will support views that a BoC policy is more likely in the upcoming months as policymakers keep an eye on developments." A tighter range on the intraday chart, delineated by minor trend resistance at 1.3710 and minor trend support at 1.3680 this morning, has been established by Spot's erratic consolidation during the previous week.
The intraday and daily oscillators' weak trend momentum can make it difficult to identify directional risks and could result in a breakout from the short-term range that stalls quite fast. To generate more directional momentum, a prolonged break above 1.3750 or below 1.3650 could be required.
