Oil: Risks in the Middle East and changes in energy prices – Rabobank.

Rabobank's Senior Global Strategist Michael Every says that growing tensions between countries could cause big changes in energy markets. He mentions increasing problems between Iran, Israel, and the US, and notes that when conflict might happen is still unclear. Every believes that if fighting starts, it will have a big effect on energy prices. The price of oil could go up a lot or down a lot, depending on what happens next.

War risk clouds crude price outlook.

In the Middle East, 11 US F-22 fighter jets are currently stationed in Israel, according to Reuters. The report also says Iran is nearly ready to purchase supersonic anti-ship missiles from China.

Embassies are telling their country's people in the area to be careful; Turkey is getting ready to stop a large number of Iranian refugees from crossing into the country.

It's still unclear when this war might start — today, or after the market closes on Friday — or what will happen next. But it seems more likely that things will continue as they are, rather than a sudden peace agreement happening right away.

No matter which way it goes, the effect on energy prices will be clear â either rising a lot or falling a lot.

Russia said it would use nuclear weapons against the UK and France, claiming they were helping Ukraine get a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb. The financial media didn't pay attention to this warning. Russia also talked about plans to attack gas pipelines in the Black Sea, similar to the recent attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Slovakia, but again, the financial media didn't notice these threats either.