Forex Today: Ahead of mid-tier statistics, the US dollar overcomes bearish pressure

The US Dollar (USD) Index ended a four-day losing streak on Thursday, rising more than 0.3%. As investors wait for the next catalyst, financial market activity slows down early Friday. The US economic calendar will highlight June Durable Goods Orders later in the day.

Price in US dollars This week
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Following the July policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key rates steady, as was generally expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated in the press conference held after the meeting that risks to economic growth are still skewed to the negative, but she also reaffirmed that they are in a "wait and watch" situation because it is unclear how the EU-US trade ties would affect the outlook for the economy. The EUR/USD pair is in a consolidation phase at about 1.1750 early Friday after closing slightly lower on Thursday. Market participants will examine the German IFO sentiment survey later in the session.

The weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 217,000 from 221,000 the week before, according to a report released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday. This reading was higher than the 227,000 that the market had anticipated. According to additional US statistics, private sector business activity increased quickly in early July, as evidenced by the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which increased from 52.9 in June to 54.6 (preliminary).

During his tour of the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington, DC, US President Donald Trump reiterated his demand for lower interest rates. In an interview with Fox Business during Trump's Fed trip, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated the Trump team's standard attacks on the Fed while also shifting back to discussing US-China trade negotiations and tariffs in general. According to Bessent, "the US is in a pretty good place with China on trade." The Trump administration is getting ready for a fresh round of trade negotiations with China next week, according to the Wall Street Journal, with an emphasis on reaching an economic pact that will expand US access to Chinese markets, especially in the business and technology sectors. In the European session, the USD Index moves in a narrow range at about 97.50, while futures for the US stock index increase by 0.1% to 0.2%.

Retail sales in June increased by 0.9% on a monthly basis, according to a report released Friday by the UK's Office for National Statistics. Although this reading was worse than the market's expectation of a 1.2% increase, it followed the 2.8% decline noted in May. The GBP/USD pair continues to trade below 1.3500 in the European morning.

Early Friday data from Japan revealed that the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.9% annually in July as opposed to 3.1% in June. The USD/JPY lost momentum and fell back to the 147.00 region by the European morning after rising toward 147.50 during Asian trading hours.

Gold continued to slide lower on Thursday after a steep drop on Wednesday, losing almost 0.5% for the day. Early on Friday, the XAU/USD pair drops toward $3,550 while still facing mild negative pressure.