The US dollar (USD) is probably going to fluctuate between 7.1160 and 7.1330. Longer term, there is potential for the USD to fall below 7.1100; however, any loss is probably going to be gradual, and 7.1000 might not be seen right away, according to FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of the UOB Group.
Potential for the USD to go below 7.1100
24-HOUR PERSPECTIVE: "Last Friday, we anticipated that the USD would 'trade in a range between 7.1080 and 7.1240'. But the USD recovered well to a high of 7.1296 after temporarily falling to 7.1128. There has been a slight uptick in upward momentum. We anticipate that the USD will trade in the upper range of 7.1160/7.1330 today.
The outlook for the next one to three weeks is as follows: "We stated last Monday, September 8, at 7.1285, that 'downward bias is increasing, but USD must first close below 7.1100 before a persistent slide can be predicted.'" After that, the USD somewhat declined, and we noted last Friday, September 12, at 7.1140, that "there is opportunity for USD to drop below 7.1100." We did note, however, that "the rate of any decrease is expected to be slow given that there has been no notable rise in negative momentum." "The major support at 7.1000 may not come into view so soon," we continued. As long as 7.1350—the "strong resistance" level that remains unchanged—is not crossed, we will continue to hold this opinion.
Potential for the USD to go below 7.1100
24-HOUR PERSPECTIVE: "Last Friday, we anticipated that the USD would 'trade in a range between 7.1080 and 7.1240'. But the USD recovered well to a high of 7.1296 after temporarily falling to 7.1128. There has been a slight uptick in upward momentum. We anticipate that the USD will trade in the upper range of 7.1160/7.1330 today.
The outlook for the next one to three weeks is as follows: "We stated last Monday, September 8, at 7.1285, that 'downward bias is increasing, but USD must first close below 7.1100 before a persistent slide can be predicted.'" After that, the USD somewhat declined, and we noted last Friday, September 12, at 7.1140, that "there is opportunity for USD to drop below 7.1100." We did note, however, that "the rate of any decrease is expected to be slow given that there has been no notable rise in negative momentum." "The major support at 7.1000 may not come into view so soon," we continued. As long as 7.1350—the "strong resistance" level that remains unchanged—is not crossed, we will continue to hold this opinion.
